Vermeij and Roopnarine 2008

Vermeij GJ, Roopnarine PD. 2008. The coming arctic invasion. Science 321: 780-781.

In this short “perspectives” article, these authors describe the historical biogeography of the North Pacific, near shore Arctic, and North Atlantic oceans, in the context of predicted patterns of climate warming over the next fifty years. In general, the climate of these areas is likely to become similar to that during the mid-Pliocene, about 3.5 million years ago. During the mid-Pliocene, large numbers of Pacific lineages of marine animals, especially molluscs, successfully colonized the Arctic ocean and established populations in the North Atlantic. While cores from the Arctic Ocean seabed suggest permanent ice-cover at the highest latitudes, there is some evidence to suggest the near shore Arctic ocean included regions that were largely ice-free. This probably resulted in much higher productivity at these locations, similar to the high productivity of the Bering Sea, and allowing large-bodied, planktotrophic animals to disperse northwards and eastwards in the generally north-east flowing currents. This pattern is expected to repeat under global warming, and because Pacific lineages are generally ecologically quite distinct from extant Atlantic species, the North Atlantic should see increased biodiversity overall. Colonization in the opposite direction, of Atlantic lineages into the North Pacific, is considered unlikely due to generally unfavourable water currents and the intensely competitive and predatory biotic environment of the Bering Sea.